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Thread: Laying bets

  1. #1
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    Laying bets

    I
    Here goes ,after all these years of cocking a snook at laying horses
    Or backing horses to lose I realise that the real reason I haven't got into it is I have no idea how to do it
    I of course have a Betfair acc and look at the back and lay prices
    But I really have no idea what I am doing
    I've read explanations which I think yep I that is easy enough
    And then no, not a Scooby doo
    So I am hoping that the guys here might try and open up what is left of my tiny mind.
    Please feel free to add your tuppence worth
    Or even your own understanding of misunderstanding of the laying game

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fridge View Post
    I
    Here goes ,after all these years of cocking a snook at laying horses
    Or backing horses to lose I realise that the real reason I haven't got into it is I have no idea how to do it
    I of course have a Betfair acc and look at the back and lay prices
    But I really have no idea what I am doing
    I've read explanations which I think yep I that is easy enough
    And then no, not a Scooby doo
    So I am hoping that the guys here might try and open up what is left of my tiny mind.
    Please feel free to add your tuppence worth
    Or even your own understanding of misunderstanding of the laying game
    To be honest mate i think you will be far better off backing.

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  4. #3
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    Finding horses that are going to lose seems simple. We can all do it every day lol. However, the important word here is "value". You need to be aware that if you're laying a horse that is 16/1 with the bookies, you're going to have to be taking a position that is over 20/1 in reality. Think about that for a minute. You can lay 20 horses and be lucky enough to have pocketed your dosh only to lose it all on the next one when three horses fall and the one you've laid romps home

    Depends what prices you're laying at. If you're laying even money or 6/4 shots, the differential is not so bad but once you get over 10/1 you'll see a massive difference. A 40/1 er will need to be laid at 60s and a 66/1 er will need to be laid at 100/1 plus.

    It takes a certain kind of mentality to cope with that and it's one that I certainly don't have but I wish you all the best if you go ahead with it

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  6. #4
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    You would be quite safe laying most of my bets

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  8. #5
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    ONEDUNME is right in all he says but that doesnt mean you should never lay one. If you are sat there and a race is gonna start and you dont like the fav for whatever reason but cant pick which one you think will beat it, then by all means lay it for a few quid. And if you are gonna do it, start very small at first and see how it goes.
    I lay some occasionally but it is all about the price. I just wish that i could lay some horses at the prices the bookmakers open up on a teatime before the day of the race. But then again, so do hundreds of others. When you do your own tissue and then look at the prices that the bookmakers open up you just say to yourself, "where the f**k did they get that price from" ? But again, so will hundreds of others. There are many, many people out there who do their own tissues and who are far better than what the bookmakers have working for them. And if you could lay at their odds it would be happy days, every day, but the fact is, all these people around the country know that the bookmakers price is wrong and there is absolutely no chance of laying it or anything like it.
    I will give you an example. The last race at Lingfield on Thursday was a 2m chase. The top horse was Go As You Please carrying the green and gold hoops. The horse has won going left handed but does jump right a lot and on a turning track like Lingfield it isnt going to help. Plus he had reached a mark of 103 which i felt was too high for him and we all know how the green and gold and handicap marks work. Plus he had been beaten off 93 on his last visit to Lingfield and he just wasnt for me. So i put him in at 6/1. When i looked in at 6.00 on Wednesday evening he was 9/4 with every firm except Bet365 who were 11/4. And i made him 6's !! It should be happy days laying that 9/4 knowing for a fact that it is going to drift because the price is wrong and there is certain profit to be made. But the fact is that nobody was ever gonna get the chance to lay 9/4 because many, many people knew that the price was a joke. Everybody except the firms that is. I kept looking in and hoped to lay some 3/1 or 7/2 etc but the plain and simple fact is that the lowest price that was laid on Betfair was just a fraction under 5/1. I seem to recall it was 5.9 but it may have been 5.8. So where did the bookies get their 9/4 from ? Who knows ? Many years ago, the bookies were the ones in the know and were always one step ahead of the punters. But not any more. You have all heard me go on about the dire standard of bookmakers these days many times over but it is a FACT ! And i just see them or their reps on tv each day and always think to myself that the only reason they are on there is that they failed the test and interview for Asda.

    For the record, Go As You Please went off 10/1, jumped right at nearly every fence and was beaten 57L. But there was never a hope in hell of laying it.
    Last edited by Quixall Crossett; 28th November 2021 at 09:18.

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  10. #6
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    Well you could have laid it at 5/1 and backed it at 10/1 - and if sp was 10/1 I presume much higher was available on Betfair - I’m not on Betfair.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nipper View Post
    Well you could have laid it at 5/1 and backed it at 10/1 - and if sp was 10/1 I presume much higher was available on Betfair - I’m not on Betfair.
    To be honest mate, there wasnt much laid at 5/1 and you had to go bigger if you wanted to lay a decent amount. But i dont want to be laying at any price and much prefer to take on a favourite when i am against it.

  12. #8
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    Quick update on my foray of laying bets lol I've decided that backing against favourites is my way forward
    After all this is what bookies do day in day out the statistical proof behind this is that roughly (this is a common scientific standard) only one third of favourites win ,leaving a whopping 2/3 or 66% of favs that don't win
    I had my first punt at laying
    For the risk of losing nearly 19 pounds
    I managed to win just under 2quid well my first lesson has been learned
    I'm not getting rich at this !
    Onwards and upwards I shall now be desperately searching for a favourite to lose on Saturday
    I will post bet before hand just to keep a loose record

  13. #9
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    fridge what are you trying to do ? laying favourites is it?

  14. #10
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    Yep ,that's what I'm trying to do but not very successful as I'm not sure what the hell I'm doing but it's gonna be fun finding out any pointers please feel free to share opinions also welcomed but may be ignored at any time

  15. #11
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    Keep a record of what price you are laying them at and if you are laying them at a bigger price than betfair sp it will be near impossible to make it pay. best of luck with it anyhew.

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  17. #12
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    Probably not a bad idea. Certainly the differential between the price you would have to lay for bigger priced horses will be lower. You could probably lay a 6/4 fav for around 7/4 with commission, whereas to lay an 8/1 shot, you might have to be laying at 10 or 12/1 and it gets worse the higher you go.

    If anyone asked me my advice (and why would they?) I'd tell them to look at races where three or four horses are all within a small price range. In other words, nobody can really make their mind up who should be favourite and therefore there should be plenty of people wanting to lay (and back) any of them.

    To use a live example, the 105 at Sedgefield today, the three at the head of the market are all 3/1 with one firm or another. You often get races where this is the case and all but one of the others are considered no-hopers and in cases like that, you may be able to lay one of the three for around 7/2. As it is, this race is a bit more open and you would need to lay between 4/1 and 9/2 if you took an opinion on which of the three you thought least likely to win.

    I know it's not blindly laying the fav as you suggested but this way you know you have at least two horses running for you who should have at least as good a chance as the one you've laid (based on the betting) plus the rest of the field.

    The other thing you have in your favour is it's the jumps season and even the most fancied fav can fall or misjudge an obstacle so badly as to put it out of the race (especially in chase races)


    The other way to do it is to purely follow the market. For example, Mr Whitaker in the 215 at Sedgefield is currently 11/8 and drifting so some might look at the fact that you can lay it at just over 6/4 as a good bet because it looks like it may be that price or bigger when they go off (if it drifts badly, it may even present a possibility to back it back at higher than you've laid to have a free bet in the race). That race is a good example as, again, there are two others in the field that can give it a race (no word of a lie being the one that is being backed). Personally, I've gone for a 22/1 shot Torngat in that race so I have my own reason for hoping Mr W doesn't win lol.

    If you're the type of person who is happy to take risk losing a bit more but with less possibility of it happening then you should be looking at big races where there are four co-favs at 5/1 or so. Again, you will probably be looking to lay at around 8/1 but if it's a 16 runner chase race then anything can happen and you would have to hope to only be unlucky enough to pick the winner once every ten times or so to make it worthwhile.

    Laying the 33/1 shot may sound like easy money but you WILL end up with one winning and you will have had to have laid it at 40s plus so that's a long long streak waiting for the dreaded event to happen.

    Anyway, that's my ramblings. Happy to discuss anything you may want to raise on the subject though.

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  19. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by ONEDUNME View Post
    To use a live example, the 105 at Sedgefield today, the three at the head of the market are all 3/1 with one firm or another. You often get races where this is the case and all but one of the others are considered no-hopers and in cases like that, you may be able to lay one of the three for around 7/2. As it is, this race is a bit more open and you would need to lay between 4/1 and 9/2 if you took an opinion on which of the three you thought least likely to win.



    The other way to do it is to purely follow the market. For example, Mr Whitaker in the 215 at Sedgefield is currently 11/8 and drifting so some might look at the fact that you can lay it at just over 6/4 as a good bet because it looks like it may be that price or bigger when they go off (if it drifts badly, it may even present a possibility to back it back at higher than you've laid to have a free bet in the race). That race is a good example as, again, there are two others in the field that can give it a race (no word of a lie being the one that is being backed). Personally, I've gone for a 22/1 shot Torngat in that race so I have my own reason for hoping Mr W doesn't win lol.



    .

    Easy money if you'd had done either of those today. The problems is, it's the exact opposite of backing in that, you're likely to have more winning days than losing ones when you're laying but the losing days could make a big hole in the old betting bank. lol

  20. #14
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    Absolutely ,and Thank you for the life examples
    It's bizarre backing horses to loose, although this seems my usual state of play
    If I had of laid Mr Whittaker to win ten my liability would have been 12.50 on Betfair
    So I am defiantly not going to lay favs blindly and your advice is a good angle to look at ,I don't think I will be laying anything above 4s the loss is too much

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  22. #15
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    Ok here is first one
    7:30 dundalk
    Dr Patrick £5 liability £ 12:50
    Last edited by Fridge; 3rd December 2021 at 19:16. Reason: Spelling

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    This ain't gonna last long !
    Bet lost
    - 12 .50

  24. #17
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    lol hazards of the game mate. Close race as well. It's harder than it looks to pick losers.

  25. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fridge View Post
    This ain't gonna last long !
    Bet lost
    - 12 .50
    As i said the other day mate, i would stick to backing if i was you. I know you say that around 33% of favs win so you have a chance but sometimes you will feel as though the one you lay wins and the next two get beat. I've heard it from a few lads in the past and they all gave up laying.
    There are favs to lay every day but you have to get stuck into the form and all that goes with it to find them. And its a good feeling when it comes off. Imagine how it feels when you are doing it for a firm and up to your bollocks with a fav and it gets beat. But of course there is the other side of it.
    I still enjoy doing it but i will only do it once, or occasionally twice, a week. Bear in mind that i only study a max of six races a day (but usually three or four) so that limits my chances of finding one to lay. I only get involved in races i have done.
    I would stick to backing if i were you mate but of course that is entirely down to you.

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  27. #19
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    i used to lay an awful lot of short priced ones in the past but i don't do it half as much now - i much prefer to dutch a few now.

  28. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jombo View Post
    i used to lay an awful lot of short priced ones in the past but i don't do it half as much now - i much prefer to dutch a few now.
    And that is it mate. Do what suits you best.

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